Credible Promise: Conflict and Security on the Korean Peninsula

Abstract

In this paper, I develop a game-theoretic model to propose a desideratum for resolving the North Korean conflict, and promoting peace and security around the Korean peninsula. A political change in North Korea may be possible only with China's full support and cooperation with international sanctions against North Korea. The key to inducing China's cooperation is for the US to make a credible promise that respects Chinese security concerns in the northern part of the Korean peninsula in the event of political change.

Keywords: conflict, security, negotiation, cooperation, promise, sanctions.

JEL Classification: C72, D82, F51