Determining Performance Indicators for Linking Monitoring Results and Risk Assessment – Application to the CO2 Storage Pilot of Hontomin, Spain

14 Pages Posted: 16 Apr 2019 Last revised: 20 May 2019

See all articles by Thomas Le Guenan

Thomas Le Guenan

Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM)

Isaline Gravaud

affiliation not provided to SSRN

José Carlos de Dios

CIUDEN

Lionel Loubeau Gavilanes

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Flavio Poletto

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Sonsoles Eguilior

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Antonio Hurtado

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Date Written: September 4, 2018

Abstract

Risk management is an essential part of any industrial operation, and relevant for CO2 injection and storage. Risk management is essential not only to ensure that there will be no detrimental impacts to public health or the environment, but also as a means to building trust in stakeholders. Operational risk management can be divided into three parts, namely: 1) risk assessment, where the risk is studied (this phase commonly involves numerical modelling); 2) monitoring during operations in order to check that the evolution of the site is in line with the pre-activity assessment; and 3) risk mitigation or risk treatment which includes any measure or action that can lower the risk either before or during operations. In the case of a CO2 storage site, risk management activities also apply to the post-closure phase, until transfer of liability.

The goal of the ENOS project on this matter is to propose a method for a robust, integrated risk management system. More in particular, we focus on a method for determining indicators and thresholds for linking monitoring and risk assessment. The idea is to expand to the other risks encountered in the analysed activity, the principle of traffic-light systems used for mitigating induced seismicity. One of the main challenge is to build a method that can take account of various measurements, and of specific purposes of different monitoring approaches. In particular, the monitoring results will be used to check that both performance and concordance (i.e., agreement between measurements and models) are acceptable. The proposed method is based on Bayesian framework and consists in the design of several models, each for the potential behaviour of a specific measurement.

The models should reflect many potential scenarios, including an expected evolution of the corresponding measurement, the identified risk scenarios, as well as other, unexpected scenarios. The Bayesian framework allows to update the probability of each model with the acquisition of experimental data, and thresholds can then be set as probabilities. In this paper, the first steps of the method in ENOS are demonstrated for the case of the Hontomìn CO2 injection and storage pilot site in Spain.

Keywords: CO2 storage, risk management, Bayesian framework, thresholds, monitoring

Suggested Citation

Le Guenan, Thomas and Gravaud, Isaline and de Dios, Carlos and Loubeau Gavilanes, Lionel and Poletto, Flavio and Eguilior, Sonsoles and Hurtado, Antonio, Determining Performance Indicators for Linking Monitoring Results and Risk Assessment – Application to the CO2 Storage Pilot of Hontomin, Spain (September 4, 2018). 14th Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies Conference Melbourne 21-26 October 2018 (GHGT-14) . Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3366022

Thomas Le Guenan (Contact Author)

Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM) ( email )

3 avenue Claude-Guillemin
BP 36009
Orléans Cedex 2, 45060
France

Isaline Gravaud

affiliation not provided to SSRN

No Address Available

Carlos De Dios

CIUDEN ( email )

Avda Presidente Rodríguez Zapatero
Cubillos del Sil, León 24492
Spain

Lionel Loubeau Gavilanes

affiliation not provided to SSRN

No Address Available

Flavio Poletto

affiliation not provided to SSRN

No Address Available

Sonsoles Eguilior

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Antonio Hurtado

affiliation not provided to SSRN

No Address Available

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