UK Shocks and Irish Business Cycles, 1922–79

23 Pages Posted: 5 Apr 2019

Date Written: May 2019

Abstract

This article examines the transmission of UK and global shocks to the Irish economy over the period 1922–79, using annual data for consumer prices and real GDP in a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model. UK aggregate demand and supply shocks have large and significant effects on Irish CPI, but smaller effects on Irish real GDP. A historical decomposition indicates that UK aggregate supply and demand shocks played a more important role than domestic shocks in the evolution of Irish CPI. In contrast, the evolution of Irish real GDP is driven more by idiosyncratic domestic shocks than by UK shocks.

Suggested Citation

Stuart, Rebecca, UK Shocks and Irish Business Cycles, 1922–79 (May 2019). The Economic History Review, Vol. 72, Issue 2, pp. 618-640, 2019. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3367110 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12664

Rebecca Stuart (Contact Author)

Central Bank of Ireland ( email )

P.O. Box 559
Dame Street
Dublin, 2
Ireland

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