Precursors of Demise? Structural Changes in Terrorist Group Alliances

46 Pages Posted: 7 May 2019

See all articles by Hyeseung Choi

Hyeseung Choi

Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST)

Jae-Suk Yang

Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST)

Date Written: April 8, 2019

Abstract

This study explores structural aspects of terrorist group alliances and how they signal the impending demise of terrorist groups. Employing network analysis, we examine the relation between terrorist group longevity and the structure of terrorist group alliances. We use dyadic data of joint attacks conducted by terrorist groups between 2001 and 2016 to analyze how the structural properties of terrorist networks increase the probability of a group dismantling. Also, we observe structural abnormalities that may signal the impending demise of terrorist groups. The results of our empirical analysis show that broker groups are more likely to be dissolved, and that the frequency of joint attacks by allied groups influences the probability of a group disbanding. Furthermore, we demonstrate an increase in allies’ attacks as the end of the life cycle of a given terrorist group approaches. Moreover, our qualitative analysis reveals that years before terrorist groups dissolve, sudden peaks in structural attributes become evident.

Suggested Citation

Choi, Hyeseung and Yang, Jae-Suk, Precursors of Demise? Structural Changes in Terrorist Group Alliances (April 8, 2019). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3368275 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3368275

Hyeseung Choi

Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST) ( email )

373-1 Kusong-dong
Yuson-gu
Taejon 305-701, 130-722

Jae-Suk Yang (Contact Author)

Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST) ( email )

291 Daehak-ro
Yuseong-gu
Daejeon, 34141
Korea, Republic of (South Korea)

Do you have a job opening that you would like to promote on SSRN?

Paper statistics

Downloads
54
Abstract Views
334
rank
462,836
PlumX Metrics