Terrorism Determinants, Model Uncertainty and Space in Colombia

36 Pages Posted: 28 May 2019

See all articles by Marcos Sanso-Navarro

Marcos Sanso-Navarro

Universidad de Zaragoza

Fernando Sanz-Gracia

Universidad de Zaragoza

María Vera-Cabello

Centro Universitario de la Defensa de Zaragoza

Date Written: April 30, 2019

Abstract

This paper studies the determinants of terrorism at the sub-national level in Colombia during 2001-2014. In order to establish robust relationships, a Bayesian model averaging framework has been implemented using departmental data. We find that the violence suffered by this country is linked to economic factors, especially labor market outcomes. The results obtained are not significantly altered by the use of relative measures of terror, the specification of alternative parameters and model priors or the presence of spatial dependence. The main conclusion drawn from our analysis is that an appropriate strategy to fight against terrorism in similar contexts is to increase its opportunity cost. This might be achieved through the promotion of inclusive socioeconomic development, primarily in rural areas.

Keywords: Colombia, terrorism determinants, model uncertainty, Bayesian model averaging, spatial dependence

JEL Classification: C11, C23, D74, O18, O54

Suggested Citation

Sanso-Navarro, Marcos and Sanz-Gracia, Fernando and Vera-Cabello, María, Terrorism Determinants, Model Uncertainty and Space in Colombia (April 30, 2019). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3380869 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3380869

Marcos Sanso-Navarro (Contact Author)

Universidad de Zaragoza ( email )

Facultad de Economía y Empresa
Departamento de Análisis Económico
Zaragoza, 50005
Spain
+34 876 554 629 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://personal.unizar.es/marcossn

Fernando Sanz-Gracia

Universidad de Zaragoza ( email )

Gran Via 2
Zaragoza, 50005
Spain

María Vera-Cabello

Centro Universitario de la Defensa de Zaragoza ( email )

Academia General Militar, Ctra. de Huesca, s/n
Zaragoza, Zaragoza 50009
Spain

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