Market-Based Monetary Policy Uncertainty

47 Pages Posted: 9 May 2019

See all articles by Michael Bauer

Michael Bauer

Universität Hamburg

Aeimit Lakdawala

Wake Forest University - Department of Economics

Philippe Mueller

Warwick Business School Finance Group

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: 2019


This paper investigates the role of monetary policy uncertainty for the transmission of FOMC actions to financial markets using a novel model-free measure of uncertainty based on derivative prices. We document a systematic pattern in monetary policy uncertainty over the course of the FOMC meeting cycle: On FOMC announcement days uncertainty tends to decline substantially, indicating the resolution of policy uncertainty. This decline is then reversed over the first two weeks of the intermeeting FOMC cycle. Both the level and the changes in uncertainty play an important role for the transmission of monetary policy to financial markets. First, changes in uncertainty have substantial effects on a variety of asset prices that are distinct from the effects of the conventional policy surprise measure. For example, the Fed's forward guidance announcements affected asset prices not only by adjusting the expected policy path but also by changing market-perceived uncertainty about this path. Second, at high levels of uncertainty a monetary policy surprise has only modest effects on assets, whereas with low uncertainty the impact is significantly more pronounced.  

Keywords: monetary policy uncertainty, Federal Reserve, event study, monetary transmission, implied volatility

JEL Classification: E430, E440, E470

Suggested Citation

Bauer, Michael and Lakdawala, Aeimit and Mueller, Philippe, Market-Based Monetary Policy Uncertainty (2019). CESifo Working Paper No. 7621, Available at SSRN: or

Michael Bauer (Contact Author)

Universität Hamburg ( email )

Von-Melle-Park 5
Hamburg, 20146


Aeimit Lakdawala

Wake Forest University - Department of Economics ( email )

Winston Salem, NC
United States


Philippe Mueller

Warwick Business School Finance Group ( email )

Gibbet Hill Rd
Coventry, CV4 7AL
Great Britain

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