Investigating the Dynamics Between Price Volatility, Price Discovery, and Criminality in Cryptocurrency Markets

Abstract

This paper identifies several stylised facts relating to the volatility and price discovery process from eight cryptocurrencies utilising an empirical analysis of intra-day trading data to uncover four main results. First, cryptocurrencies exhibit weekend-volatility effects while intra-day volatility is found to be influenced by international trading times, periods of substantial volatility in the markets for oil, and GBP/USD and cybercrime events. Secondly, a thorough investigation of recent cybercriminality identifies that cryptocurrency hacks are found to increase both the volatility of the currency hacked and the correlations across the hacked currency and other cryptocurrencies. Thirdly, hacks significantly reduce price discovery sourced within the hacked currency relative to other cryptocurrencies. Finally, there are abnormal returns associated with the hacks observed in the hours prior to the actual hacking event, which reverts to zero at the time of the public announcement of the hack.

Keywords: criminality, cryptocurrency, information share, volatility, price discovery

JEL Classification: K42, G14, D3