Do We Really Know that the WTO Increases Trade?

Rose, Andrew Kenan

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Do We Really Know that the WTO Increases Trade?

47 Pages Posted: 11 Oct 2002

See all articles by Andrew Kenan Rose

Andrew Kenan Rose

University of California - Haas School of Business; NUS Business School; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

There are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: October 2002

Abstract

This paper estimates the effect on international trade of multilateral trade agreements: the World Trade Organization (WTO), its predecessor the Generalized Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), and the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) extended from rich countries to developing countries. I use a standard 'gravity' model of bilateral merchandise trade and a large panel data set covering over fifty years and 175 countries. An extensive search reveals little evidence that countries joining or belonging to the GATT/WTO have different trade patterns than outsiders. The GSP does seem to have a strong effect, and is associated with an approximate doubling of trade.

JEL Classification: F13, F15

Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation

Rose, Andrew Kenan and Rose, Andrew Kenan, Do We Really Know that the WTO Increases Trade? (October 2002). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=338879