Varieties of Forecasts: Predicting Adverse Regime Transitions

70 Pages Posted: 16 May 2019

Date Written: May 2019

Abstract

This article introduces the V-Forecast project, the forecasting intuitive of the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) institute. In this the initial year of the V-Forecast project, we provide two-year ahead forecasts of the risk of adverse regime transitions (ARTs) for 169 countries. ARTs are substantial movements of a country's regime towards more authoritarian governance, whether authoritarian reversals in a democracy, or further autocratization in an already nondemocratic country. Examples include Hungary and Poland over the past few years, which are prominent cases in a more widespread and worrying global trend over that effects a signicant fraction of the world's population. Yet so far, there has been no public forecasting system for anticipating new ARTs and identifying countries most at risk. We describe an effort that forecasts ARTs - operationalized using the Regimes of the World (RoW) categorization - with an ensemble model that leverages V-Dem and several additional external data sources. Despite being rare events with a roughly four percent baseline chance over any two-year period, in test forecasts the model is able to achieve good accuracy.

Suggested Citation

Morgan, Richard and Beger, Andreas and Glynn, Adam, Varieties of Forecasts: Predicting Adverse Regime Transitions (May 2019). V-Dem Working Paper 2019:89. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3389194 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3389194

Richard Morgan (Contact Author)

Emory University ( email )

201 Dowman Drive
Atlanta, GA 30322
United States

Andreas Beger

Independent

Adam Glynn

Harvard University ( email )

1875 Cambridge Street
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Here is the Coronavirus
related research on SSRN

Paper statistics

Downloads
35
Abstract Views
226
PlumX Metrics