The Global Capital Flows Cycle: Structural Drivers and Transmission Channels

54 Pages Posted: 17 May 2019

Date Written: May 15, 2019


In this paper, we study the effects of structural shocks that influence global risk – the main factor behind a “global capital flows cycle” – and how risk, in turn, is transmitted to capital flows. Our results show that not all the risk shocks driving the global financial cycle have the same effects on capital flows. Changes in global risk caused by pure financial shocks have the largest impact on the global configuration of capital flows, followed by US monetary policy shocks. As regards the transmission of risk to capital flows, we uncover a traditional “trilemma”, as countries more financially open and adopting a strict peg are more sensitive to global risk. This “trilemma” is mainly driven by one category of cross-border flows, “other investment”, confirming the importance of cross-border banking loans in the narrative of the global financial cycle.

Keywords: global financial cycle, capital flows, monetary policy, international spillover, global risk

JEL Classification: E42, E52, F31, F36, F41

Suggested Citation

Habib, Maurizio Michael and Venditti, Fabrizio, The Global Capital Flows Cycle: Structural Drivers and Transmission Channels (May 15, 2019). ECB Working Paper No. 2280 (2019); ISBN 978-92-899-3542-5 , Available at SSRN:

Maurizio Michael Habib (Contact Author)

European Central Bank (ECB) ( email )

Sonnemannstrasse 22
Frankfurt am Main, 60314

Fabrizio Venditti

Bank of Italy ( email )

Via Nazionale 91
00184 Roma

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