Tropical Storms and Mortality Under Climate Change

36 Pages Posted: 21 May 2019

See all articles by Todd Pugatch

Todd Pugatch

Oregon State University; IZA


Extreme weather induced by climate change can have major consequences for human health. In this study, I quantify the effect of tropical storm frequency and severity on mortality using objective meteorological data and the universe of vital statistics records from a large developing country, Mexico. Using a measure of storm exposure that accounts for both windspeed dispersion and population density along the storm track, I project changes in past storm-related mortality under various scenarios of continued climate change, while holding population and income at current levels. I find that storm-related deaths would have risen under most climate change scenarios considered, with increases of as much as 52% or declines of as much as 10%, depending on the interplay between increasing storm severity and decreased frequency.

Keywords: climate change, human health, human mortality, natural disasters, hurricanes, tropical cyclones, tropical storms, developing countries, Latin America, Mexico

JEL Classification: I15, J10, O13

Suggested Citation

Pugatch, Todd, Tropical Storms and Mortality Under Climate Change. IZA Discussion Paper No. 12117, Available at SSRN:

Todd Pugatch (Contact Author)

Oregon State University ( email )

Corvallis, OR 97331
United States

HOME PAGE: http://

IZA ( email )

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072

Here is the Coronavirus
related research on SSRN

Paper statistics

Abstract Views
PlumX Metrics