The Effects of Conflict on Fertility: Evidence from the Genocide in Rwanda

48 Pages Posted: 21 May 2019 Last revised: 5 Jul 2022

See all articles by Kati Krähnert

Kati Krähnert

German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin)

Tilman Brück

IGZ - Leibniz Institute of Vegetable and Ornamental Crops; ISDC - International Security and Development Center; IZA Institute of Labor Economics

Michele Di Maio

Sapienza University of Rome

roberto nisticò

CSEF - University of Naples Federico II

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Abstract

This paper analyzes the fertility effects of the 1994 genocide in Rwanda. We study the effects of violence on both the hazard of having a child in the early post-genocide period and on the total number of post-genocide births up to 15 years following the conflict. We use individual-level data from Demographic and Health Surveys to estimate survival and count data models. The paper contributes to the literature on the demographic effects of violent conflict by testing two channels through which conflict influences fertility. First, the type of violence exposure as measured by the death of a woman's child or sibling. Second, the conflict-induced change in local demographic conditions as captured by the change in the district-level sex ratio. Results indicate that the genocide had heterogeneous effects on fertility, depending on the type of violence experienced by the woman, her age cohort, parity, and the time horizon (5, 10 and 15 years after the genocide). There is strong evidence of a replacement effect. Having experienced the death of a child during the genocide increases both the hazard of having a child in the five years following the genocide and the total number of post-genocide births. Experiencing sibling death during the genocide significantly lowers post-genocide fertility in both the short run and the long run. Finally, a reduction in the local sex ratio negatively impacts the hazard of having a child in the five years following the genocide, particularly for older women.

Keywords: sibling death, sex ratio, Rwanda, genocide, fertility, child death

JEL Classification: J13, N47, O12

Suggested Citation

Krähnert, Kati and Brück, Tilman and Di Maio, Michele and nisticò, roberto, The Effects of Conflict on Fertility: Evidence from the Genocide in Rwanda. IZA Discussion Paper No. 12328, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3390317

Kati Krähnert (Contact Author)

German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin) ( email )

Mohrenstraße 58
Berlin, 10117
Germany

Tilman Brück

IGZ - Leibniz Institute of Vegetable and Ornamental Crops ( email )

Theodor-Echtermeyer-Str. 1
Grossbeeren, 14979
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://www.igzev.de

ISDC - International Security and Development Center ( email )

Friedrichstr. 88
Berlin, 10117
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://www.isd-center.org

IZA Institute of Labor Economics

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

Michele Di Maio

Sapienza University of Rome ( email )

via del Castro Laurenziano 9
Rome
Italy

HOME PAGE: http://https://sites.google.com/a/uniroma1.it/micheledimaio/home

Roberto Nisticò

CSEF - University of Naples Federico II

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