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Global Trend of Aetioloy-Based Primary Liver Cancer Incidence from 1990 to 2030: A Modelling Study

29 Pages Posted: 22 May 2019

See all articles by Zhenqiu Liu

Zhenqiu Liu

Fudan University - Collaborative Innovation Center for Genetics and Development; Fudan University - State Key Laboratory of Genetic Engineering; Fudan University - Taizhou Institute of Health Sciences

Kelin Xu

Fudan University - State Key Laboratory of Genetic Engineering; Fudan University - Collaborative Innovation Center for Genetics and Development; Fudan University - Taizhou Institute of Health Sciences; Fudan University

Chunqing Lin

Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences - National Cancer Center; Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences - Peking Union Medical College

Oumin Shi

Shenzhen University

Xianhua Mao

Fudan University - State Key Laboratory of Genetic Engineering; Fudan University - Collaborative Innovation Center for Genetics and Development; Fudan University - Taizhou Institute of Health Sciences

Ning Cai

Fudan University - State Key Laboratory of Genetic Engineering; Fudan University - Collaborative Innovation Center for Genetics and Development; Fudan University - Taizhou Institute of Health Sciences

Yanfeng Jiang

Fudan University - Collaborative Innovation Center for Genetics and Development; Fudan University - State Key Laboratory of Genetic Engineering; Fudan University - Taizhou Institute of Health Sciences

Chen Suo

Fudan University - Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics; Fudan University - Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety; Fudan University - Department of Epidemiology

Li Jin

Fudan University - Collaborative Innovation Center for Genetics and Development; Fudan University - State Key Laboratory of Genetic Engineering; Fudan University - Taizhou Institute of Health Sciences; Fudan University - Human Phenome Institute

Tiejun Zhang

Fudan University - Department of Epidemiology; Fudan University - Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety (Ministry of Education)

Xingdong Chen

Fudan University - State Key Laboratory of Genetic Engineering; Fudan University - Collaborative Innovation Center for Genetics and Development; Fudan University - Human Phenome Institute; Fudan University - Taizhou Institute of Health Sciences

More...

Abstract

Background: Temporal trends of primary liver cancer (PLC) vary worldwide. Predictions of PLC incidence and case numbers are critical for the understanding of and planning for the PLC disease burden.

Methods: Data on the PLC incidence and case number from 1990 to 2017 were retrieved from Global Burden of Disease database. The estimated average percentage change (EAPC) was calculated to quantify the trends of PLC age standardized incidence rates (ASRs). Bayesian age-period-cohort models were constructed to project the PLC incidence and case numbers through 2030.

Findings: Globally, the PLC case number doubled from 472,300 in 1990 to 953,100 in 2017. The case number will further increase to 1,571,200 in 2030, and the ASR will increase from 11.80 per 100,000 in 2018 to 14.08 per 100,000 in 2030. The most pronounced increases were observed in people afflicted by non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and in older people. The trends of PLC incidence between 1990 and 2030 were heterogeneous from country to country. For example, China and Brazil is predicted to experience an unfavourable increase after 2017, whereas the increase is expected to cease in the USA and Egypt between 2018 and 2030. The PLC incidence was estimated to consistently decrease in Japan, while increase in Germany, including young people, from 1990 to 2030.

Interpretation: PLC incidence along with case number are participated to increase at the global level through 2030. The increases in people afflicted by NASH and among older people suggest that the dearth of attention for these populations in current prevention strategies and highlighting their priority in the future schedules for global control of PLC.

Funding: National Key Research and Development Program of China; National Natural Science Foundation of China; Science and Technology Commission of Shanghai Municipality; Shanghai Municipal Science and Technology Major Project.

Declaration of Interest: We declare no conflicts of interest.

Ethical Approval: Not Required.

Suggested Citation

Liu, Zhenqiu and Xu, Kelin and Lin, Chunqing and Shi, Oumin and Mao, Xianhua and Cai, Ning and Jiang, Yanfeng and Suo, Chen and Jin, Li and Zhang, Tiejun and Chen, Xingdong, Global Trend of Aetioloy-Based Primary Liver Cancer Incidence from 1990 to 2030: A Modelling Study (May 16, 2019). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3391185 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3391185

Zhenqiu Liu

Fudan University - Collaborative Innovation Center for Genetics and Development

China

Fudan University - State Key Laboratory of Genetic Engineering

Shanghai
China

Fudan University - Taizhou Institute of Health Sciences

Taizhou
China

Kelin Xu

Fudan University - State Key Laboratory of Genetic Engineering

Shanghai
China

Fudan University - Collaborative Innovation Center for Genetics and Development

China

Fudan University - Taizhou Institute of Health Sciences

Taizhou
China

Fudan University

Beijing West District Baiyun Load 10th
Shanghai, 100045
China

Chunqing Lin

Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences - National Cancer Center

Beijing
China

Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences - Peking Union Medical College

NO. 9, Dongdan Santiao
Beijing, Dongcheng District
China

Oumin Shi

Shenzhen University

3688 Nanhai Road, Nanshan District
Shenzhen, Guangdong 518060
China

Xianhua Mao

Fudan University - State Key Laboratory of Genetic Engineering

Shanghai
China

Fudan University - Collaborative Innovation Center for Genetics and Development

China

Fudan University - Taizhou Institute of Health Sciences

Taizhou
China

Ning Cai

Fudan University - State Key Laboratory of Genetic Engineering

Shanghai
China

Fudan University - Collaborative Innovation Center for Genetics and Development

China

Fudan University - Taizhou Institute of Health Sciences

Taizhou
China

Yanfeng Jiang

Fudan University - Collaborative Innovation Center for Genetics and Development

China

Fudan University - State Key Laboratory of Genetic Engineering

Shanghai
China

Fudan University - Taizhou Institute of Health Sciences

Taizhou
China

Chen Suo

Fudan University - Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics

Shanghai
China

Fudan University - Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety

Shanghai
China

Fudan University - Department of Epidemiology

Shanghai
China

Li Jin

Fudan University - Collaborative Innovation Center for Genetics and Development

China

Fudan University - State Key Laboratory of Genetic Engineering

Shanghai
China

Fudan University - Taizhou Institute of Health Sciences

Taizhou
China

Fudan University - Human Phenome Institute

Shanghai
China

Tiejun Zhang

Fudan University - Department of Epidemiology ( email )

Shanghai
China

Fudan University - Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety (Ministry of Education) ( email )

Shanghai
China

Xingdong Chen (Contact Author)

Fudan University - State Key Laboratory of Genetic Engineering ( email )

Shanghai
China

Fudan University - Collaborative Innovation Center for Genetics and Development

China

Fudan University - Human Phenome Institute ( email )

Shanghai
China

Fudan University - Taizhou Institute of Health Sciences ( email )

Taizhou
China

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