1.5 To Stay Alive? AOSIS and the Long Term Temperature Goal in the Paris Agreement

Abstract

The global temperature goals contained in Article 2 of the Paris Agreement1 have been widely touted as a major marker of the success of the agreement. In particular, the aspirational goal of pursuing efforts to limit the global temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels was a surprise to many observers of the negotiations. However, inclusion of the 1.5°C long term temperature goal had been a long-fought struggle, led by the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS), and resulted mainly from the Structured Expert Dialogue (SED) on the 2013-2015 review. This insight piece provides an overview of the results of the 2013-2015 review in light of the 1.5°C temperature goal, and its importance for small island states. The piece also charts the convoluted course of the outcome of the 2013-2015 review in the Paris negotiations, the consequential recognition of the 1.5°C goal in the agreement, and provides some initial thoughts of the adequacy of this provision in the Paris Agreement.

Keywords: Climate Change, AOSIS