We Can't Go on Together with Suspicious Minds: Forecasting Errors in Evaluating the Appreciation of Denials

Abstract

In light of public examples of false denials, it is unsurprising that people’s beliefs about denials often are negative. However, inconsistent with such beliefs, denials often are sincere, and can facilitate trust repair. We illuminate this mismatch by examining whether forecasting errors exist in people’s responses to denials. In two experimental studies, we reveal that people who actually received a denial after a possible transgression (a) were less suspicious, and experienced greater trust, and (b) displayed more trusting behavior than people who imagined receiving a denial. These results suggest that people underestimate the effectiveness of denials in the reconciliation process.

Keywords: denial, forecasting error, trust, social accounts, apology