Is There Adaptation to Predictable Climate Change Along the Temperature-Conflict Nexus? Evidence from the El Niño Southern Oscillation

11 Pages Posted: 13 Jun 2019

See all articles by Daniel L. Hicks

Daniel L. Hicks

University of Oklahoma - Department of Economics

Beatriz Maldonado

College of Charleston - Department of Economics; College of Charleston - International and Intercultural Studies Program

Date Written: May 30, 2019

Abstract

A growing body of research connects short-run deviations in weather with violence. Less well understood is the scope for agents to adapt to medium and longer-run climate fluctuations. We follow Hsiang, Meng, and Cane (2011) and use the existing climactic forces of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to analyze climate change - exploiting the fact that in 1989 published forecasts of these fluctuations became available. In a generalized differences framework, we contrast the impact of ENSO in affected areas of the globe relative to unaffected areas before and after 1989, finding no robust evidence that adaptation efforts are successfully mitigating conflict or civil unrest occurring as a result of these fluctuations.

Keywords: Adaptation; Climate Change; El Nino; Civil Conflict and Unrest

JEL Classification: O1, Q5, D70

Suggested Citation

Hicks, Daniel Lee and Maldonado, Beatriz, Is There Adaptation to Predictable Climate Change Along the Temperature-Conflict Nexus? Evidence from the El Niño Southern Oscillation (May 30, 2019). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3396755 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3396755

Daniel Lee Hicks (Contact Author)

University of Oklahoma - Department of Economics ( email )

729 Elm Avenue
Norman, OK 73019-2103
United States

Beatriz Maldonado

College of Charleston - Department of Economics ( email )

66 George St.
Charleston, SC South Carolina 29424
United States

College of Charleston - International and Intercultural Studies Program ( email )

66 George Street
Charleston, SC 29424
United States

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