Is There Adaptation to Predictable Climate Change Along the Temperature-Conflict Nexus? Evidence from the El Niño Southern Oscillation
11 Pages Posted: 13 Jun 2019
Date Written: May 30, 2019
A growing body of research connects short-run deviations in weather with violence. Less well understood is the scope for agents to adapt to medium and longer-run climate fluctuations. We follow Hsiang, Meng, and Cane (2011) and use the existing climactic forces of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to analyze climate change - exploiting the fact that in 1989 published forecasts of these fluctuations became available. In a generalized differences framework, we contrast the impact of ENSO in affected areas of the globe relative to unaffected areas before and after 1989, finding no robust evidence that adaptation efforts are successfully mitigating conflict or civil unrest occurring as a result of these fluctuations.
Keywords: Adaptation; Climate Change; El Nino; Civil Conflict and Unrest
JEL Classification: O1, Q5, D70
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation