An Estimation of the Effects of Brexit on Trade and Migration

21 Pages Posted: 31 May 2019

See all articles by Rodolfo G. Campos

Rodolfo G. Campos

Banco de España

Jacopo Timini

Universidad Carlos III de Madrid; Banco de España; Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)

Date Written: May 31, 2019

Abstract

This paper uses a gravity model approach to estimate the effects of Brexit in two dimensions: trade in goods and migration.

We simulate two scenarios:

1) no agreement with reversión to WTO rules and no special treatment for migrants;

2) signature of a bilateral free trade agreement (FTA).

According to our results, Brexit may have large negative effects on trade and migration flows between the EU and the UK. In the WTO scenario, trade flows are predicted to drop by 30% and migration by close to 25%. If the UK and the EU sign an FTA-like agreement (which does not include free mobility of labour), the negative effects on trade are lessened although there is no significant difference in terms of migration with respect to the WTO scenario.

Keywords: international trade, migration, Brexit, gravity models, United Kingdom, European Union

JEL Classification: F13, F14, F17, F22

Suggested Citation

Campos, Rodolfo G. and Timini, Jacopo, An Estimation of the Effects of Brexit on Trade and Migration (May 31, 2019). Banco de Espana Occasional Paper No. 1912 (2019). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3396986 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3396986

Rodolfo G. Campos (Contact Author)

Banco de España ( email )

Alcala 50
Madrid 28014
Spain

Jacopo Timini

Universidad Carlos III de Madrid ( email )

CL. de Madrid 126
Madrid, 28903
Spain

Banco de España

Alcala 50
Madrid 28014
Spain

Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) ( email )

1 Place du Congres, 1000
Brussels, 1000
Belgium

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