Profiling dynamic decision-makers

Grabiszewski K, Horenstein A (2022) Profiling dynamic decision-makers. PLOS ONE 17(4): e0266366. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0266366

Posted: 14 Jun 2019 Last revised: 18 Apr 2022

See all articles by Konrad Grabiszewski

Konrad Grabiszewski

Mohammad bin Salman College

Alex R. Horenstein

University of Miami - School of Business Administration - Department of Economics

Date Written: March 10, 2021

Abstract

From CEOs confronting competition to children playing board games, our professional and personal lives are full of dynamic decisions. Naturally, while playing the role of a decision-maker, people differ. To comprehend and analyze how they differ, first it is necessary to construct a profiling method that classifies dynamic decision-makers. Developing such a method is the main objective of our article. We equate dynamic decision-making with backward inducting. We rely on response times to construct the profiles. Our method has both descriptive power and predictive power: a subject’s profile resembles her reasoning process and forecasts the likelihood of her correctly backward inducting. To test the proposed profiling method, we use data generated by 22 different finite dynamic scenarios from the mobile app Blues and Reds. Our sample consists of 35,826 observations from 6,463 subjects located in 141 countries. We construct the profiles of our subjects, and, in a variety of exercises supported by an array of robustness checks, we successfully establish the predictive power of our profiling method.

Keywords: profiling, strategy, game theory, experimental economics, mobile experiment

JEL Classification: C72, C73, C99

Suggested Citation

Grabiszewski, Konrad and Horenstein, Alex R., Profiling dynamic decision-makers (March 10, 2021). Grabiszewski K, Horenstein A (2022) Profiling dynamic decision-makers. PLOS ONE 17(4): e0266366. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0266366, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3397768 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3397768

Konrad Grabiszewski

Mohammad bin Salman College ( email )

KAEC
Saudi Arabia

Alex R. Horenstein (Contact Author)

University of Miami - School of Business Administration - Department of Economics ( email )

P.O. Box 248126
Coral Gables, FL 33124-6550
United States

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