Belief Formation and Belief Updating Under Ambiguity: Evidence from Experiments
56 Pages Posted: 7 Jun 2019
Date Written: June 2, 2019
Decisions under ambiguity depend on both the belief regarding possible scenarios and the attitude towards ambiguity. This paper exclusively investigates the belief formation and belief updating process under ambiguity, using laboratory experiments. The results show that half of the subjects tend to adopt a simple heuristic strategy when updating beliefs, while the other half seems to partially adopt the Bayesian updates. We recover beliefs, represented by distributions of the priors/posteriors. The recoverable initial priors mostly follow a uniform distribution. We also find that subjects on average demonstrate slight pessimism in an ambiguous environment.
Keywords: ambiguity, learning strategy, belief updates, non-Bayesian updates, pessimism, laboratory experiments
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