Forecasting the Prediction or Predict the Forecasting Influenza Inflection — A Precise View of Investigating Butterfly Effects

22 Pages Posted: 17 Jun 2019

Date Written: June 6, 2019

Abstract

Abstract: Influenza infection has been a big problem among human beings. In Hong Kong, the usual stages of influenza outbreak are the decrease in temperature (happens in winter climate) leads to the avian flux, then the animal flux and gradually human becomes infected. The human influenza outbreak occurs. However, in Australia, the story is quite different. Excessive emission of carbon dioxide causes weather change in climatic factors such as strong wind, temperature and wettest. The result is an outbreak of human influenza. These factors constitute a series of correlated sequences. The outcome gives rise to a Bayes Decision tree which predicts the probability of taking vaccine given that the person is being infected. This predictive vaccine efficacy is based on the Bayes’ probability rather than a traditional definition of efficacy or effectiveness. That is what “Forecasts the prediction” does mean. Conversely, if one knows the Bayes Probability tree and group the same categorised result by a random variable, the consequences domino effects will be formed. That is what “Predicts the forecasting” does imply. One of the aforementioned Butterfly Effects’ application (besides influenza outbreak) is in the prediction of the earthquake. It can forecast an earthquake together with its corresponding feasible predicting probability and give out necessary warnings in advance according to daily phenomena. As a result, this act can save millions of people’s lives.

Keywords: Prediction, Forecast, Structural Equation Model, Psychology, Public Health

JEL Classification: I10

Suggested Citation

Lam, Shun, Forecasting the Prediction or Predict the Forecasting Influenza Inflection — A Precise View of Investigating Butterfly Effects (June 6, 2019). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3400075 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3400075

Shun Lam (Contact Author)

Independent

No Address Available

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