The Long-Run Effects of Uncertainty Shocks
56 Pages Posted: 10 Jun 2019
Date Written: June 7, 2019
This paper argues that shocks increasing macroeconomic uncertainty negatively affect economic activity not only in the short but also in the long run. In a sticky-price DSGE model with endogenous growth through investment in R&D, uncertainty shocks lead to a short-term fall in demand because of precautionary savings and rising markups. The decline in the utilised aggregate stock of R&D determines a fall in productivity, which causes a long-term decline in the main macroeconomic aggregates. When households feature Epstein-Zin preferences, they become averse to these long-term risks affecting their consumption process (long-run risk channel), which strongly exacerbates the precautionary savings motive and the overall negative effects of uncertainty shocks.
Keywords: uncertainty shocks, R&D, endogenous growth
JEL Classification: E32, O40
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation