Compound Poisson Models for Weighted Networks with Applications in Finance
22 Pages Posted: 18 Jun 2019 Last revised: 29 Apr 2020
Date Written: April 13, 2020
We develop a modelling framework for estimating and predicting weighted network data. The edge weights in weighted networks often arise from aggregating some individual relationships between the nodes. Motivated by this, we introduce a modelling framework for weighted networks based on the compound Poisson distribution. To allow for heterogeneity between the nodes, we use a regression approach for the model parameters. We test the new modelling framework on two types of financial networks: a network of financial institutions in which the edge weights represent exposures from trading Credit Default Swaps and a network of countries in which the edge weights represent cross-border lending. The compound Poisson Gamma distributions with regression fit the data well in both situations. We illustrate how this modelling framework can be used for predicting unobserved edges and their weights in an only partially observed network. This is for example relevant for assessing systemic risk in financial networks.
Keywords: Weighted directed networks, compound Poisson distribution, regression, subnetwork prediction, financial networks, systemic risk
JEL Classification: C02, C46, C53, D85, G32
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