Do Unemployment Benefit Extensions Explain the Emergence of Jobless Recoveries?

93 Pages Posted: 11 Jun 2019

See all articles by Kurt Mitman

Kurt Mitman

IIES

Stanislav Rabinovich

University of North Carolina (UNC) at Chapel Hill

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: May 2019

Abstract

Countercyclical unemployment benefit extensions in the United States act as a propagation mechanism, contributing to both the high persistence of unemployment and its weak correlation with productivity. We show this by modifying an otherwise standard frictional model of the labor market to incorporate a stochastic and state-dependent process for unemployment insurance estimated on US data. Accounting for movements in both productivity and unemployment insurance, our calibrated model is consistent with unemployment dynamics of the past 50 years. In particular, it explains the emergence of jobless recoveries in the 1990's as well as their absence in previous recessions, the low correlation between unemployment and labor productivity, and the apparent shifts in the Beveridge curve following recessions. Next, we embed this mechanism into a medium-scale DSGE model, which we estimate using standard Bayesian methods. Both shocks to unemployment benefits and their systematic component are shown to be important for the sluggish recovery of employment following recessions, in particular the Great Recession, despite the fact that shocks to unemployment benefits account for little of the overall variance decomposition. If we also incorporate other social safety nets, such as food stamps (SNAP), the estimated model assigns an even bigger role to policy in explaining sluggish labor market recovery. We also find that unemployment benefit extensions prevented deflation in the last three recessions, thus acting similarly to a wage markup shock.

Keywords: business cycles, jobless recoveries, Unemployment insurance

JEL Classification: E24, E32, J65

Suggested Citation

Mitman, Kurt and Rabinovich, Stanislav, Do Unemployment Benefit Extensions Explain the Emergence of Jobless Recoveries? (May 2019). CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP13760. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3401847

Kurt Mitman (Contact Author)

IIES ( email )

Stockholm, SE-10691
Sweden

HOME PAGE: http://kurtmitman.com

Stanislav Rabinovich

University of North Carolina (UNC) at Chapel Hill ( email )

102 Ridge Road
Chapel Hill, NC NC 27514
United States

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