Projection of Fossil Fuel Demands in Vietnam to 2050 and Climate Change Implications

Asia & the Pacific Policy Studies, Volume 6, Issue 2, pages 208-221

Crawford School Research Paper

14 Pages Posted: 12 Jun 2019

See all articles by Quang Minh Tran

Quang Minh Tran

Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences (VASS)

Date Written: April 18, 2019

Abstract

Over the past decade, Vietnam has emerged as one of the world's fastest growing economies. Fossil fuel use, which is a dominant energy source and vital for economic growth, have been increasing considerably. Undoubtedly, the projection of fossil fuel demand is essential for a better understanding of energy needs, fuel mix, and Vietnam's strategic development. This paper provides an outlook for coal, oil, and gas demand in Vietnam to 2050. The projection is based on the calibrated results from a hybrid model (that combines a GTAP‐ R version for resources, and a micro simulation approach) and an energy database. Under the baseline scenario (business as usual), from 2018 to 2050, the demand for coal, oil products, and gas are expected to increase by a factor of 2.47‐fold, 2.14‐fold, and 1.67‐fold, respectively. Emissions are also projected to increase. Because fossil fuels are the dominant source of carbon emissions in Vietnam, it follows, going forward, that an effective fuel‐mix strategy that encourages the development of renewables and energy efficiency is essential.

Keywords: climate change, emissions, fossil fuels demand, projection, Vietnam

Suggested Citation

Tran, Quang Minh, Projection of Fossil Fuel Demands in Vietnam to 2050 and Climate Change Implications (April 18, 2019). Asia & the Pacific Policy Studies, Volume 6, Issue 2, pages 208-221; Crawford School Research Paper. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3402764

Quang Minh Tran (Contact Author)

Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences (VASS) ( email )

1 Lieu Glai
Ba Dinh
Hanoi
Vietnam

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