On Extreme Perception Bias
CERE Working Paper, 2019:10
13 Pages Posted: 28 Jun 2019
Date Written: June 26, 2019
This preliminary note investigates perception bias: To what extent do individual opinions confound reality? We estimate the relative gap between self-declared estimates and real data. We asked a sample of Philippine respondents about the incidence of diabetes and smartphone usage in their country. We observed a trend of judgement miscalibration. Responses exhibit significant deviation from facts, e.g. inaccuracies can go as high as seven times the real value. Especially for estimates on smartphone ownership, bootstrapped quantile regression models show that perception bias is associated with age.
Keywords: perception, overestimation, quantile regression, bootstrapping
JEL Classification: D91, Z10, C81
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation