On Extreme Perception Bias

CERE Working Paper, 2019:10

13 Pages Posted: 28 Jun 2019

See all articles by Imelda Molina

Imelda Molina

University of the Philippines, Los Baños - College of Economics and Management

Emerico Aguilar

Osaka University

Klarizze Puzon

Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU) - Center for Environmental and Resource Economics (CERE)

Date Written: June 26, 2019

Abstract

This preliminary note investigates perception bias: To what extent do individual opinions confound reality? We estimate the relative gap between self-declared estimates and real data. We asked a sample of Philippine respondents about the incidence of diabetes and smartphone usage in their country. We observed a trend of judgement miscalibration. Responses exhibit significant deviation from facts, e.g. inaccuracies can go as high as seven times the real value. Especially for estimates on smartphone ownership, bootstrapped quantile regression models show that perception bias is associated with age.

Keywords: perception, overestimation, quantile regression, bootstrapping

JEL Classification: D91, Z10, C81

Suggested Citation

Molina, Imelda and Aguilar, Emerico and Puzon, Klarizze, On Extreme Perception Bias (June 26, 2019). CERE Working Paper, 2019:10. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3410408 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3410408

Imelda Molina (Contact Author)

University of the Philippines, Los Baños - College of Economics and Management ( email )

College, Laguna 4031
Philippines

Emerico Aguilar

Osaka University ( email )

1-1 Yamadaoka
Suita
Osaka, 565-0871
Japan

Klarizze Puzon

Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU) - Center for Environmental and Resource Economics (CERE) ( email )

Almas Allé 10
Umeå, 750 07
Sweden

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