A Three-Module Approach on the Development of City GHG Emissions Peaking Roadmap: Case Studies in Chang-Zhu-Tan City Cluster in China
Posted: 28 Jun 2019 Last revised: 13 Jul 2019
Date Written: June 27, 2019
China pledged to peak its total CO2 emissions by 2030 in its nationally determined contributions (NDC) under the Paris Agreement in 2015. Cities play a critical role in fulfilling China’s commitments. Up to now, 82 cities have been chosen as China’s low-carbon pilot cities. The majority of the cities aim at achieving emission peaking earlier than the national goal. However most of their peaking plan were based on unreliable and incomplete information, and on a less-advanced scenario modeling methodology which would have actually prevented the cities from achieving their desired peaking goals. Therefore based on the study of Changsha’s carbon emission peaking roadmap, a three-module approach has been formulated to help cities better understand their GHGs emission situation and develop a sound peaking roadmap. The three modules are module I-Carbon Inventory which main functions are defining baseline, benchmarking, and problem shooting, module II-Peaking Scenario which main functions are emission simulation, estimation of total peaking amount, and target breaking down and allocation, module III-Peaking Investments which main functions are cost-benefit analysis for sectoral climate action, and project-based carbon economy analysis. The three-module approach has already been applied in three cities in China. The three case studies show that it’s impossible for the cities to achieve CO2 peak earlier than 2030 under the current policies. The cities must take more ambitious CO2 mitigation measures to realize their desired peaking goals. Regarding shortening the path to execution, it’s necessary to engage different key stakeholders including provincial, city, and business leaders and upskilling them on the cross-sector solutions needed to sustain their low carbon trajectory to shorten the path to execution.
Keywords: CO2 Peak, GHG Inventory, LEAP, Scenario Analysis, Multi-stakeholder engagement
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