Education and the Geography of Brexit

Abstract

The role of education in the geography of Brexit is usually examined using descriptive statistics and regression, which are ill-suited to the assessment of predictive capacity. By presenting in-sample and out-of-sample probit classification results, this paper demonstrates that educational attainment alone can correctly classify up to 92.24% of local authorities by voting outcome, including up to 80% of Remain-voting authorities. These results emphasise the importance of education as a key factor in the political geography of the Brexit vote.

Keywords: Brexit, Education, Geography