Competition and Manipulation in Derivative Contract Markets

Abstract

This paper studies manipulation in cash-settled derivative contract markets. When traders hedge factor risk using cash-settled derivatives, which are settled based on the price of a spot good, traders can manipulate settlement prices by trading the spot good. In equilibrium, manipulation can make all agents worse off. I define two measures of manipulation-induced welfare losses, which can be estimated using commonly observed market data. Using these measures, I estimate how large manipulation-induced distortions would be if COMEX gold futures were cash-settled using the London Bullion Market Association gold price benchmark.

Keywords: derivatives, manipulation, regulation

JEL Classification: D43, D44, D47, G18, K22, L40, L50