Capital Flows to Emerging Economies: Recent Developments and Drivers

10 Pages Posted: 2 Jul 2019

Date Written: May 16, 2019

Abstract

Emerging markets have gained prominence as recipients of capital flows since the onset of the financial crisis in 2008. This raises their exposure and goes hand in hand with greater dependence on external financing and heightened sensitivity to global shocks. However, some differences can be observed across regions. For example, while the more stable types of capital flows (direct investment) continue to outweigh other types in Latin America, in Asia and the Middle East the recent increase in capital inflows has taken the form of debt, private in the case of Asia and mostly government debt in the Middle East. Against this background, this article examines the impact on the capital flows to these economies of five potential global shocks: an appreciation of the dollar, a fall in commodity prices, an increase in global aversion to risk, expectations of monetary policy tightening in the United States and lower regional growth compared with advanced economies. The findings of this article suggest that the factor with the greatest impact on portfolio flows to emerging markets is the appreciation of the dollar although, in the case of Latin America, commodity prices also play a very significant role.

Keywords: capital flows, emerging markets, Latin America

JEL Classification: F30, F32, F37, G15

Suggested Citation

Molina, Luis and Viani, Francesca, Capital Flows to Emerging Economies: Recent Developments and Drivers (May 16, 2019). Banco de Espana Article 7/19, May 2019. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3413637

Luis Molina (Contact Author)

Banco de España ( email )

Alcala 50
Madrid 28014
Spain

Francesca Viani

Banco de España ( email )

Alcala 50
Madrid 28014
Spain

HOME PAGE: http://www.bde.es

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