Measuring Retail Trade Using Card Transactional Data

37 Pages Posted: 3 Jul 2019 Last revised: 17 Jul 2019

See all articles by Diego J. Bodas-Sagi

Diego J. Bodas-Sagi

MAPFRE España

Juan Ramon Garcia

BBVA Research

Tomasa Rodrigo

BBVA Research – Ciudad BBVA

Pep Ruiz de Aguirre

BBVA Research

Camilo A. Ulloa

BBVA Research

Juan Murillo Arias

BBVA data & analytics

Juan de Dios Romero Palop

BBVA data & analytics

Heribert Valero Lapaz

BBVA data & analytics

Matias Pacce

Banco de España

Date Written: July 3, 2019

Abstract

In this paper we present a high-dimensionality Retail Trade Index (RTI) constructed to nowcast the retail trade sector economic performance in Spain, using Big Data sources and techniques. The data are the footprints of BBVA clients from their credit or debit card transactions at Spanish point of sale (PoS) terminals. The resulting indexes have been found to be robust when compared with the Spanish RTI, regional RTI (Spain’s autonomous regions), and RTI by retailer type (distribution classes) published by the National Statistics Institute (INE). We also went one step further, computing the monthly indexes for the provinces and sectors of activity and the daily general index, by obtaining timely, detailed information on retail sales. Finally, we analyzed the high-frequency consumption dynamics using BBVA retailer behavior and a structural time series model.

Keywords: retail sales, big data, electronic payments, consumption, structural time series model

JEL Classification: C32, C55, C81, E21

Suggested Citation

Bodas-Sagi, Diego J. and Garcia, Juan Ramon and Rodrigo, Tomasa and Ruiz de Aguirre, Pep and Ulloa, Camilo A. and Murillo Arias, Juan and Romero Palop, Juan de Dios and Valero Lapaz, Heribert and Pacce, Matias, Measuring Retail Trade Using Card Transactional Data (July 3, 2019). Banco de Espana Working Paper No. 1921 (2019), Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3414182

Diego J. Bodas-Sagi (Contact Author)

MAPFRE España ( email )

28220 Madrid
Spain

Juan Ramon Garcia

BBVA Research ( email )

2200 Post Oak Blvd
Houston, TX 77056
United States

Tomasa Rodrigo

BBVA Research – Ciudad BBVA ( email )

C/ Azul,4. Edificio La Vela. Planta 4
Madrid, 28050
Spain

Pep Ruiz de Aguirre

BBVA Research ( email )

2200 Post Oak Blvd
Houston, TX 77056
United States

Camilo A. Ulloa

BBVA Research ( email )

2200 Post Oak Blvd
Houston, TX 77056
United States

Juan Murillo Arias

BBVA data & analytics ( email )

Juan de Dios Romero Palop

BBVA data & analytics ( email )

Heribert Valero Lapaz

BBVA data & analytics ( email )

Matias Pacce

Banco de España ( email )

Alcala 50
Madrid 28014
Spain

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