Measuring Retail Trade Using Card Transactional Data
37 Pages Posted: 3 Jul 2019 Last revised: 17 Jul 2019
Date Written: July 3, 2019
In this paper we present a high-dimensionality Retail Trade Index (RTI) constructed to nowcast the retail trade sector economic performance in Spain, using Big Data sources and techniques. The data are the footprints of BBVA clients from their credit or debit card transactions at Spanish point of sale (PoS) terminals. The resulting indexes have been found to be robust when compared with the Spanish RTI, regional RTI (Spain’s autonomous regions), and RTI by retailer type (distribution classes) published by the National Statistics Institute (INE). We also went one step further, computing the monthly indexes for the provinces and sectors of activity and the daily general index, by obtaining timely, detailed information on retail sales. Finally, we analyzed the high-frequency consumption dynamics using BBVA retailer behavior and a structural time series model.
Keywords: retail sales, big data, electronic payments, consumption, structural time series model
JEL Classification: C32, C55, C81, E21
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