Could a child subsidy increase long-run fertility and stability of families? Could it have equilibrium effects? Evidence from the “Maternity Capital” program in Russia

61 Pages Posted: 10 Jul 2019 Last revised: 29 Dec 2020

See all articles by Ilia Sorvachev

Ilia Sorvachev

University of Wisconsin - Madison

Evgeny Yakovlev

New Economic School; IZA

Date Written: July 8, 2019

Abstract

We evaluate the effects of a series of subsidies, called Maternity Capital, aimed at increasing fertility in Russia, introduced between 2007 and 2012. Maternity Capital led to a significant increase in fertility, in both the short run and the long run, and has already led to an increase in completed fertility for a large cohort of Russian women. The estimates imply that an additional birth costs the government approximately US$50,000 in child subsidies. The program exerts substantial general equilibrium effects: it affects family stability, the educational sector, and the housing market.

Keywords: Fertility, Russia, Maternity Capital, Pronatalist policies, Child subsidy

JEL Classification: J13, H1, J08, H5

Suggested Citation

Sorvachev, Ilia and Yakovlev, Evgeny, Could a child subsidy increase long-run fertility and stability of families? Could it have equilibrium effects? Evidence from the “Maternity Capital” program in Russia (July 8, 2019). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3416509 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3416509

Ilia Sorvachev

University of Wisconsin - Madison ( email )

William H. Sewell Social Science Building
1180 Observatory Drive
Madison, WI 53706-1393
United States

Evgeny Yakovlev (Contact Author)

New Economic School ( email )

Skolkovskoe shosse 45
Moscow, 121343
Russia

IZA ( email )

P.O. Box 7240
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Germany

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