Could a child subsidy increase long-run fertility and stability of families? Could it have equilibrium effects? Evidence from the “Maternity Capital” program in Russia
61 Pages Posted: 10 Jul 2019 Last revised: 29 Dec 2020
Date Written: July 8, 2019
We evaluate the effects of a series of subsidies, called Maternity Capital, aimed at increasing fertility in Russia, introduced between 2007 and 2012. Maternity Capital led to a significant increase in fertility, in both the short run and the long run, and has already led to an increase in completed fertility for a large cohort of Russian women. The estimates imply that an additional birth costs the government approximately US$50,000 in child subsidies. The program exerts substantial general equilibrium effects: it affects family stability, the educational sector, and the housing market.
Keywords: Fertility, Russia, Maternity Capital, Pronatalist policies, Child subsidy
JEL Classification: J13, H1, J08, H5
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation