The Effects of Trump Trade Policy on China’s Economic Performance

20 Pages Posted: 11 Jul 2019

See all articles by Mario Arturo Ruiz Estrada

Mario Arturo Ruiz Estrada

University of Malaya (UM) - Faculty of Economics & Administration (FEA)

Donghyun Park

Asian Development Bank - Economic Research

Minsoo Lee

Asian Development Bank

Nicholas Apergis

University of Piraeus; University of Derby

Date Written: July 11, 2019

Abstract

In this paper, we perform different simulations to assess the effect of the Trump administration’s international trade policy on the Chinese and American economies in the next five years. To do so, we develop a new economic simulator, namely the “Foreign Trade War Smash Wave Effect Simulator (FTWSWE-Simulator).” The FTWSWE-Simulator is based on the concept of the inter-spaces leaking coordinate system. We apply the FTWSE-Simulator to simulate a large trade war between U.S. and China under different tariff rates (1%, 5%, 25%, 50%, and 100%) to evaluate the final impact on its ratio of exports, ratio of imports, production capacity, unemployment levels, income desgrowth, inflation levels, and poverty levels in the two countries between 2020 and 2025.

Keywords: China, U.S., trade, tariff, protectionism, trade policy, policy modeling

JEL Classification: F1, F10, F13

Suggested Citation

Ruiz Estrada, Mario Arturo and Park, Donghyun and Lee, Minsoo and Apergis, Nicholas, The Effects of Trump Trade Policy on China’s Economic Performance (July 11, 2019). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3418240 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3418240

Mario Arturo Ruiz Estrada (Contact Author)

University of Malaya (UM) - Faculty of Economics & Administration (FEA) ( email )

Kuala Lumpur, 50603
Malaysia
+60126850293 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://ssrc.um.edu.my/

Donghyun Park

Asian Development Bank - Economic Research ( email )

6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City 1550
Metro Manila
Philippines

Minsoo Lee

Asian Development Bank ( email )

6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City 1550
Metro Manila
Philippines

Nicholas Apergis

University of Piraeus ( email )

Karaoli and Dimitriou 80
80 KARAOLI & DIMITRIOU STREET
Piraeus, Attiki 18534
Greece

University of Derby ( email )

Kedleston Road
Derby, Derbyshire DE22 1GB
United Kingdom

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