Un bicentenario del café en Colombia: estrategia competitiva y cambio estructural (A Bicentenary of Coffee in Colombia: Competitive Strategy and Structural Change)

47 Pages Posted: 17 Jul 2019

See all articles by Ricardo Rocha García

Ricardo Rocha García

National University of Colombia - Department of Economics

Date Written: July 16, 2019

Abstract

Spanish Abstract: Un análisis empírico de la estrategia exportadora de Colombia frente a Brasil en el mercado cafetero durante 1826-2018, considerando una competencia oligopolista por productos diferenciados. La relación de cointegración bilateral de las exportaciones según precios, costos, demanda y cambios en la política comercial fue estimada mediante un modelo de mínimos cuadrados ordinarios dinámico. Los resultados sugieren que Colombia transitó desde ser un incipiente exportador y tomador de precios, hasta convertirse en oligopolista del café suave ante la política de valorización del Brasil. Luego de la ruptura del Acuerdo Internacional del Café, protagonizando un intercambio de roles, cuyos efectos se simulan según un escenario contrafactual.

English Abstract: An empirical analysis of the export strategy of Colombia against Brazil in the coffee market during 1826-2018, considering an oligopolistic competition for differentiated products. The relationship of bilateral cointegration of exports according to prices, costs, demand and changes in trade policy was estimated using a dynamic ordinary least squares model. The results suggest that Colombia went from being an incipient exporter and price taker, until becoming an oligopolist of soft coffee before Brazil's valorization policy. After the breakdown of the International Coffee Agreement, starring in an exchange of roles, whose effects are simulated according to a counterfactual scenario.

Note: Downloadable document is in Spanish.

Keywords: café, exportaciones, Colombia, MCOD, política comercial estratégica

JEL Classification: F14, L13, N76

Suggested Citation

Rocha García, Ricardo, Un bicentenario del café en Colombia: estrategia competitiva y cambio estructural (A Bicentenary of Coffee in Colombia: Competitive Strategy and Structural Change) (July 16, 2019). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3420934 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3420934

Ricardo Rocha García (Contact Author)

National University of Colombia - Department of Economics ( email )

Carrera 30 Calle 45 Ciudad Universitaria
Bogotá
Colombia

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