A Systems Analysis of WEF Global Risks 2007~2017

Abstract

The World Economic Forum (WEF) has been producing reports since 2006 based on what are perceived by respondents to their survey as the major risks facing the world. This paper extends the work of Evans et al (2017) that analysed the WEF 2014 risks and considers the WEF Global Risks over the period 2007~2017. We conclude that consistent with Evans et al (2017), whilst there is evidence that the WEF Global Risks over the period 2007~2017 can be reduced to a simpler number of common characteristics, there is not a great deal of consistency over time, i.e., the perceived global risks are evolving across time and this is consistent with evidence of a transition occurring in the global financial system over the 2007~2017 period. The result may also be partly due to changes in the respondents to the WEF Global Risk surveys over time. We have also concluded that the major risks are from the “unknown” and “unknowable” categories that require careful consideration as to appropriate risk management approaches.

Keywords: WEF Global Risks, Cladistics Analysis, Complex Adaptive Systems, Risk Management

JEL Classification: E170, G1, G15, G17