The Effects of Oil Price Shocks on the Prices of EU Emission Trading System and European Stock Returns

Abstract

This paper examines whether oil price shocks of different origin affect the price of carbon emission allowance traded under the European Union's Emissions Trading System (EU-ETS); leading to changes in aggregate and sector specific European equity returns. The results show that an unexpected oil supply disruption has an imminent but weak positive effect on carbon emission price, while a positive aggregate demand shock has a strong positive effect on carbon emission price. By contrast, a positive oil-specific (precautionary) demand shock has a negative but weak effect on carbon emission price. These findings are economically important as positive shocks on the CO2 emission allowance price trigger a decrease on the aggregate stock return of the European equity market, albeit they trigger a large and persistent increase on European equity returns of oil-related industries with the exception of the Energy sector.

Keywords: oil price shocks; emissions trading system; structural VAR; European stock returns

JEL Classification: G10, G11, G12, G14