Stable Genius? The Macroeconomic Impact of Trump

15 Pages Posted: 29 Jul 2019

See all articles by Benjamin Born

Benjamin Born

Frankfurt School of Finance & Management gemeinnützige GmbH

Gernot J. Müller

University of Tuebingen - Department of Economics

Moritz Schularick

University of Bonn - Department of Economics; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Petr Sedlacek

University of Oxford

Date Written: June 2019

Abstract

How much credit does Donald Trump deserve for the macroeconomic performance of the US economy? Growth and job creation have been robust during the first 2.5 years since he took office, but this does not prove that Trump made a difference. In this note we develop a counterfactual scenario for how the US economy would have evolved without Trump---we let a matching algorithm determine which combination of other economies best resembles the pre-election path of the US economy. We then compare the post-election performance of the US economy to this synthetic "doppelganger". For now there is little evidence for a Trump effect.

Keywords: counterfactual, Economic Growth, Macroeconomic Performance, President Trump, stable genius, synthetic control method

JEL Classification: E30, E60

Suggested Citation

Born, Benjamin and Müller, Gernot J. and Schularick, Moritz and Sedlacek, Petr, Stable Genius? The Macroeconomic Impact of Trump (June 2019). CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP13798, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3428318

Benjamin Born (Contact Author)

Frankfurt School of Finance & Management gemeinnützige GmbH ( email )

Adickesallee 32-34
Frankfurt am Main, 60322
Germany

Gernot J. Müller

University of Tuebingen - Department of Economics ( email )

Mohlstrasse 36
D-72074 Tuebingen, 72074
Germany

Moritz Schularick

University of Bonn - Department of Economics ( email )

Bonn
Germany

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

Petr Sedlacek

University of Oxford ( email )

Mansfield Road
Oxford, Oxfordshire OX1 4AU
United Kingdom

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