The Macroeconomic Impact of Trump

25 Pages Posted: 29 Jul 2019 Last revised: 15 Mar 2021

See all articles by Benjamin Born

Benjamin Born

Frankfurt School of Finance & Management gemeinnützige GmbH

Gernot J. Müller

University of Tuebingen - Department of Economics

Moritz Schularick

University of Bonn - Department of Economics; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Petr Sedlacek

University of Oxford

Date Written: June 2019

Abstract

Donald Trump was President of the United States from January 2017 to January 2021. During that time, except for the period since spring 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic took its toll on economic activity, the US economy has been doing very well according to key indicators like the unemployment rate and GDP growth. Does Trump deserve credit for the booming economy? To address this question, we develop a counterfactual scenario for how the US economy would have evolved without Trump---we let a matching algorithm determine which combination of other economies best resembles the pre-election path of the US economy. We then compare the performance of the US economy during Trump's Presidency to this synthetic ``doppelganger''. There is little evidence for a Trump effect.

JEL Classification: E30, E60

Suggested Citation

Born, Benjamin and Müller, Gernot J. and Schularick, Moritz and Sedlacek, Petr, The Macroeconomic Impact of Trump (June 2019). CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP13798, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3428318

Benjamin Born (Contact Author)

Frankfurt School of Finance & Management gemeinnützige GmbH ( email )

Adickesallee 32-34
Frankfurt am Main, 60322
Germany

Gernot J. Müller

University of Tuebingen - Department of Economics ( email )

Mohlstrasse 36
D-72074 Tuebingen, 72074
Germany

Moritz Schularick

University of Bonn - Department of Economics ( email )

Bonn
Germany

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

Petr Sedlacek

University of Oxford ( email )

Mansfield Road
Oxford, Oxfordshire OX1 4AU
United Kingdom

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