Multivariate Stochastic Volatility Modeling of Neural Data

37 Pages Posted: 2 Aug 2019

See all articles by Tung Phan

Tung Phan

Department of Psychology

Jessica A. Wachter

University of Pennsylvania - Finance Department; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Ethan A. Solomon

University of Pennsylvania - Department of Bioengineering

Michael J. Kahana

University of Pennsylvania - Department of Psychology

Date Written: July 29, 2019

Abstract

Because multivariate autoregressive models have failed to adequately account for the complexity of neural signals, researchers have predom- inantly relied on non-parametric methods when studying the relations between brain and behavior. Using medial temporal lobe (MTL) recordings from 96 neurosurgical patients, we show that time series models with volatility described by a multivariate stochastic latent-variable process and lagged interactions between signals in different brain regions provide new insights into the dynamics of brain function. The implied volatility inferred from our process positively correlates with high-frequency spectral activity, a signal that correlates with neuronal activity. We show that volatility features derived from our model can reliably decode memory states, and that this classifier performs as well as those using spectral features. Using the directional connections between brain regions during complex cognitive process provided by the model, we uncovered perirhinal-hippocampal desynchronization in the MTL regions that is associated with successful memory encoding.

Keywords: stochastic volatility models, electrophysiology, model-based connectivity, verbal memory

Suggested Citation

Phan, Tung and Wachter, Jessica A. and Solomon, Ethan A. and Kahana, Michael J., Multivariate Stochastic Volatility Modeling of Neural Data (July 29, 2019). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3429132 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3429132

Tung Phan (Contact Author)

Department of Psychology ( email )

Philadelphia, PA 19104
United States

Jessica A. Wachter

University of Pennsylvania - Finance Department ( email )

The Wharton School
3620 Locust Walk
Philadelphia, PA 19104
United States
215-898-7634 (Phone)
215-898-6200 (Fax)

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Ethan A. Solomon

University of Pennsylvania - Department of Bioengineering ( email )

220 S 33rd St
Philadelphia, PA 19104
United States

Michael J. Kahana

University of Pennsylvania - Department of Psychology ( email )

3815 Walnut Street
Philadelphia, PA 19104-6196
United States

Here is the Coronavirus
related research on SSRN

Paper statistics

Downloads
6
Abstract Views
161
PlumX Metrics