Methodology and Findings for the Exposure Analysis of the Chinese Wastewater Sector to Flooding and Earthquakes Hazards

24 Pages Posted: 6 Aug 2019

See all articles by Xi Hu

Xi Hu

Harvard Law School; Environmental Change Institute ; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Raghav Pant

University of Oxford - Environmental Change Institute (ECI)

Conrad Zorn

University of Oxford - Environmental Change Institute (ECI)

Weeho Lim

University of Oxford - Environmental Change Institute (ECI)

Elco Eduard Koks

University of Oxford

Zhimin Mao

SCE (France)

Date Written: June 18, 2019

Abstract

This paper describes the methodology and findings for the extreme hazard exposure analysis of the Chinese wastewater sector to flooding and earthquakes hazards. This analysis is undertaken for changing flooding, under climate scenarios, and earthquake exposure of a spatially accurate wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) database for China, covering a total of 1,346 assets with additional attributes quantifying the treatment capacity and users dependent on each plant. For flooding, we apply and downscale a global river routing (CaMa-Flood) model that quantifies the change degree of flood exposures from the present time-period (1980-2005) to the near future time-period (2016-2035) to a far future time period (2036-2055). We find evidence that most climate models project increasing number of WWTP assets face climate-induced flood hazards in both the near and far future, potentially affecting as many as 208 million users by 2050. However, there are spatial and temporal variations from these projections which means that planning for resilient wastewater infrastructure requires more detailed understanding of the vulnerability attributes of WWTPs including their exact location, the number of users they serve as well as their flood protection standards. For earthquakes, we examine the exposure of WWTPs to earthquake hazards through both seismic shaking and induced liquefaction. Overall, we demonstrate the significant risk that earthquakes can have on the WWTP process -- especially on centralized systems. By considering liquefaction susceptibility in combination with shaking, we expose a number of WWTPs that face an increased level of exposure to damages following earthquakes compared to looking at shaking in isolation.

Keywords: Natural Disasters, Hydrology, Climate Change and Environment, Science of Climate Change, Climate Change and Health

Suggested Citation

Hu, Xi and Pant, Raghav and Zorn, Conrad and Lim, Weeho and Koks, Elco Eduard and Mao, Zhimin, Methodology and Findings for the Exposure Analysis of the Chinese Wastewater Sector to Flooding and Earthquakes Hazards (June 18, 2019). World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 8903, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3430513

Xi Hu (Contact Author)

Harvard Law School ( email )

1575 Massachusetts
Hauser 406
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Environmental Change Institute ( email )

Oxford, OX1 3QY
United Kingdom

HOME PAGE: http://https://www.eci.ox.ac.uk/people/xhu.html

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) ( email )

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

HOME PAGE: http://https://www.nber.org/people/xi-sisi_hu?page=1&perPage=50

Raghav Pant

University of Oxford - Environmental Change Institute (ECI)

South Parks Road
Oxford, OX1 3QY
United Kingdom

Conrad Zorn

University of Oxford - Environmental Change Institute (ECI)

South Parks Road
Oxford, OX1 3QY
United Kingdom

Weeho Lim

University of Oxford - Environmental Change Institute (ECI)

South Parks Road
Oxford, OX1 3QY
United Kingdom

Elco Eduard Koks

University of Oxford

Mansfield Road
Oxford, Oxfordshire OX1 4AU
United Kingdom

Zhimin Mao

SCE (France)

243 avenue de Bruxelles
La Seyne Sur Mer, 83500
France

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