ITER: A Quarterly Indicator of Regional Economic Activity in Italy
23 Pages Posted: 7 Aug 2019
Date Written: April 29, 2019
This work documents the construction of the new quarterly indicator of regional economic activity (Indicatore Trimestrale dell’Economia Regionale – ITER), which uses a parsimonious set of regional variables and combines them by means of temporal disaggregation techniques to obtain a quarterly index that is consistent with the official data on national and regional GDP and marked by a small lag compared with the reference period. The methodology was implemented to produce quarterly indicators for the economies of Italy’s four macro-areas in the period 1995-2017. With a view to assessing the performance of the quarterly indicator, a forecasting exercise was conducted regarding annual GDP growth in the four macro-areas for the period 2014-17. The forecasting performance of ITER is in line with that of the indicators developed by other national research institutions.
Keywords: temporal disaggregation by related series, regional economies benchmarking and extrapolation, real time estimates
JEL Classification: C22, C61, C82
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation