ITER: A Quarterly Indicator of Regional Economic Activity in Italy

23 Pages Posted: 7 Aug 2019

Date Written: April 29, 2019

Abstract

This work documents the construction of the new quarterly indicator of regional economic activity (Indicatore Trimestrale dell’Economia Regionale – ITER), which uses a parsimonious set of regional variables and combines them by means of temporal disaggregation techniques to obtain a quarterly index that is consistent with the official data on national and regional GDP and marked by a small lag compared with the reference period. The methodology was implemented to produce quarterly indicators for the economies of Italy’s four macro-areas in the period 1995-2017. With a view to assessing the performance of the quarterly indicator, a forecasting exercise was conducted regarding annual GDP growth in the four macro-areas for the period 2014-17. The forecasting performance of ITER is in line with that of the indicators developed by other national research institutions.

Keywords: temporal disaggregation by related series, regional economies benchmarking and extrapolation, real time estimates

JEL Classification: C22, C61, C82

Suggested Citation

Di Giacinto, Valter and Monteforte, Libero and Filippone, Andrea and Montaruli, Francesco and Ropele, Tiziano, ITER: A Quarterly Indicator of Regional Economic Activity in Italy (April 29, 2019). Bank of Italy Occasional Paper No. 489, April 2019. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3432997 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3432997

Valter Di Giacinto (Contact Author)

Bank of Italy ( email )

Via Nazionale 91
Rome, 00184
Italy

Libero Monteforte

Bank of Italy ( email )

Via Nazionale 91
Rome, 00184
Italy

Andrea Filippone

Bank of Italy ( email )

Via Nazionale 91
Rome, 00184
Italy

Francesco Montaruli

Bank of Italy ( email )

No Address Available

Tiziano Ropele

Bank of Italy ( email )

Via Nazionale 91
Rome, 00184
Italy

Register to save articles to
your library

Register

Paper statistics

Downloads
6
Abstract Views
63
PlumX Metrics