Growth after War in Syria

47 Pages Posted: 7 Aug 2019

See all articles by Sharmila Devadas

Sharmila Devadas

World Bank’s Development Research Group

Ibrahim Ahmed Elbadawi

World Bank

Norman Loayza

World Bank - Research Department

Date Written: August 6, 2019

Abstract

This paper addresses three questions: 1) what would have been the growth and income trajectory of Syria in the absence of war; 2) given the war, what explains the reduction in economic growth in terms physical capital, labor force, human capital, and productivity; and 3) what potential growth scenarios for Syria there could be in the aftermath of war. Estimates of the impact of conflict point to negative gross domestic product (GDP) growth of -12 percent on average over 2011-18, resulting in a GDP contraction to about one-third of the 2010 level. In post-conflict simulation scenarios, the growth drivers are affected by the assumed levels of reconstruction assistance, repatriation of refugees, and productivity improvements associated with three plausible political settlement outcomes: a baseline (Sochi-plus) moderate scenario, an optimistic (robust political settlement) scenario, and a pessimistic (de facto balance of power) scenario. Respectively for these scenarios, GDP per capita average growth in the next two decades is projected to be 6.1, 8.2, or 3.1 percent, assuming that a final and stable resolution of the conflict is achieved.

Keywords: Armed Conflict, Labor Markets, Labor & Employment Law, Demographics, Macroeconomic Management

Suggested Citation

Devadas, Sharmila and Elbadawi, Ibrahim Ahmed and Loayza, Norman, Growth after War in Syria (August 6, 2019). World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 8967. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3433474

Sharmila Devadas (Contact Author)

World Bank’s Development Research Group ( email )

Malaysia

Ibrahim Ahmed Elbadawi

World Bank

1818 H Street, NW
Washington, DC 20433
United States

Norman Loayza

World Bank - Research Department ( email )

1818 H Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20433
United States

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