The Persistence of New Hampshire's Memory: The Hurst Exponent of Republican Voting in New Hampshire, 1828-2016

Abstract

Using a technique first developed by Harold Edwin Hurst to measure the degree to which a river system “remembers” its own past, then later applied by Benoit Mandelbrot to financial information, the author measures the degree to which New Hampshire voters appear to remember past votes. The result finds that indeed New Hampshire voters do remember past results — but to a lesser degree than the Nile “remembers” previous floods.

Keywords: Harold Edwin Hurst, Hurst exponent, Benoit Mandelbrot, New Hampshire, GOP