How to Handle the Fiscal Crisis in Greece? Empirical Evidence Based on a Survey of Economic Experts

27 Pages Posted: 9 Aug 2019

See all articles by Niklas Potrafke

Niklas Potrafke

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Martin Mosler

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute) - Ifo Institute

Markus Reischmann

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute) - Ifo Institute

Date Written: 2019

Abstract

We asked economic experts polled by the CESifo World Economic Survey how to handle the fiscal crisis in Greece in the year 2015. The sample includes about 850 experts from 110 countries. We find systematic differences in experts' recommendations. Our results suggest that policy advice is related to an expert's personal and country-level attributes. Country-level characteristics, especially credit default swaps as a measure of fiscal stability, predict views on whether Greece should exit the eurozone. An expert's educational background, age and professional affiliation predict opinions on the credit programs of the International Monetary Fund. We propose that policymakers who seek balanced policy advice should consult experts from different countries and personal backgrounds.

Keywords: Greece, Grexit, experts survey, public debt crisis, IMF, international organizations, policy advice

JEL Classification: H630, C830, H120, F530, E420, F450, D720

Suggested Citation

Potrafke, Niklas and Mosler, Martin and Reischmann, Markus, How to Handle the Fiscal Crisis in Greece? Empirical Evidence Based on a Survey of Economic Experts (2019). CESifo Working Paper No. 7777, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3434833 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3434833

Niklas Potrafke

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute) ( email )

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, DE-81679
Germany

Martin Mosler (Contact Author)

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute) - Ifo Institute ( email )

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, 01069
Germany

Markus Reischmann

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute) - Ifo Institute ( email )

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, 01069
Germany

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