Why Do States Intervene in the Elections of Others?

43 Pages Posted: 13 Aug 2019

See all articles by Johannes Bubeck

Johannes Bubeck

Deutsche Bundesbank

Kai Jäger

University of London - Department of Political Economy; University of Mannheim - Mannheim Centre for European Social Research (MZES)

Nikolay Marinov

University of Houston - Department of Political Science

Federico Nanni

Data and Web Science Group

Date Written: August 9, 2019

Abstract

Why do states intervene in elections abroad? We specify the conditions giving rise to election interference among states. Outsiders intervene when the main domestic contenders for office espouse different policy positions of interest to the outside powers. Policy polarization between domestic political forces rather than a state's "unfriendliness’’ is what counts. We provide a new and unique measure to track the policy positions of local contenders. We show that the new policy polarization measure outperforms a number of available alternatives. We use it to predict the behavior of the United States and of the United Kingdom as an interveners in the elections of others. Our work may be a benefit to multiple subfields of political science and has substantial policy relevance.

Suggested Citation

Bubeck, Johannes and Jäger, Kai and Marinov, Nikolay and Nanni, Federico, Why Do States Intervene in the Elections of Others? (August 9, 2019). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3435138 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3435138

Johannes Bubeck

Deutsche Bundesbank

Wilhelm-Epstein-Str. 14
Frankfurt/Main, 60431
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://https://sites.google.com/view/johannesbubeck

Kai Jäger

University of London - Department of Political Economy ( email )

Strand Building
London
United Kingdom

University of Mannheim - Mannheim Centre for European Social Research (MZES) ( email )

D-68131 Mannheim
Germany

Nikolay Marinov (Contact Author)

University of Houston - Department of Political Science ( email )

TX 77204-3011
United States

HOME PAGE: http://www.nikolaymarinov.com

Federico Nanni

Data and Web Science Group ( email )

Germany

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