Standards for Evaluating Source Reliability and Information Credibility in Intelligence Production

Irwin, D. & Mandel, D. R. (accepted conditionally). Standards for evaluating source reliability and information credibility in intelligence production. In D. R. Mandel (Ed.), Assessment and Communication of Uncertainty in Intelligence to Support Decision Making: Final Report of Research Task Group S

16 Pages Posted: 15 Aug 2019

See all articles by Daniel Irwin

Daniel Irwin

Government of Canada - Defence Research and Development Canada (DRDC)

David Mandel

DRDC, Toronto Research Centre

Date Written: April 1, 2019

Abstract

Intelligence practitioners must regularly exploit information of uncertain quality to support decision-making. Recognizing information evaluation as a key function within the intelligence process, some organizations provide standards for assessing and communicating relevant information characteristics. Despite their intent, however, many of these standards are inconsistent across organizations, and may be fundamentally flawed or otherwise ill-suited to the context of application. In certain situations, poorly formulated standards may actually inhibit collaboration, degrade the quality of analytic judgements, and impair decision-making. In order to develop evidence-based recommendations for future practice in the assessment and communication of information quality, SAS-114 collected standards in use across a variety of agencies and domains. The following chapter provides a critical examination of standards for evaluating source reliability and information credibility, and highlights avenues for future research and development.

Keywords: intelligence analysis, intelligence production, information evaluation, NATO

JEL Classification: Z18

Suggested Citation

Irwin, Daniel and Mandel, David, Standards for Evaluating Source Reliability and Information Credibility in Intelligence Production (April 1, 2019). Irwin, D. & Mandel, D. R. (accepted conditionally). Standards for evaluating source reliability and information credibility in intelligence production. In D. R. Mandel (Ed.), Assessment and Communication of Uncertainty in Intelligence to Support Decision Making: Final Report of Research Task Group S, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3435931

Daniel Irwin

Government of Canada - Defence Research and Development Canada (DRDC) ( email )

Ottawa, Ontario
Canada

David Mandel (Contact Author)

DRDC, Toronto Research Centre ( email )

1133 Sheppard Ave West
Toronto, Ontario
Canada

HOME PAGE: http://https://sites.google.com/site/themandelian/

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