The Advantage of Scoring Just Before the Halftime Break – Pure Myth? Quasi-Experimental Evidence From European Football

Abstract

We examine whether the moment just before the halftime break is a particularly good time to score a goal. Using detailed data from the top five European football leagues between the 2013/14 and 2017/18 seasons, we exploit the quasi-random occurrence of goals scored just before and just after the halftime break. In the former situation, the game is exogenously interrupted by a break immediately after the goal, whereas in the latter situation, the game continues without interruption. We show that in the case of a goal being scored just before halftime, the scoring team benefits more from the halftime break than the conceding team.

Keywords: football, football myth, halftime, scoring, quasi-experiment