Generating Gridded Agricultural Gross Domestic Product for Brazil: A Comparison of Methodologies

20 Pages Posted: 20 Aug 2019 Last revised: 21 Aug 2019

See all articles by Timothy S. Thomas

Timothy S. Thomas

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

Liangzhi You

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

Ulrike Wood-Sichra

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

Yating Ru

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

Brian Blankespoor

World Bank - Development Research Group (DECRG)

Erwin Marinus Franciscus Kalvelagen

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

Date Written: August 19, 2019

Abstract

This paper examines two new methods to generate gridded agricultural Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and compares the results with a traditional method. In the case of Brazil, these two new methods of spatial disaggregation and cross-entropy outperform the prediction of agricultural GDP from the traditional method that distributes agricultural GDP using rural population. The paper finds that the best prediction method is spatial disaggregation using a regression approach for all the key crops and contributors to agricultural GDP. However, the issue of degrees of freedom is an important limiting factor, as the approach requires sufficient subnational data. The cross-entropy method with readily available spatially distributed crop, livestock, forest, and fish allocation far outperforms the traditional method, at least in the case of Brazil, and can operate with national- and/or subnational-level data.

Keywords: Livestock and Animal Husbandry, Crops and Crop Management Systems, Climate Change and Agriculture, Energy and Natural Resources, Forests and Forestry, Forestry, Coastal and Marine Resources, Food Security

Suggested Citation

Thomas, Timothy S. and You, Liangzhi and Wood-Sichra, Ulrike and Ru, Yating and Blankespoor, Brian and Kalvelagen, Erwin Marinus Franciscus, Generating Gridded Agricultural Gross Domestic Product for Brazil: A Comparison of Methodologies (August 19, 2019). World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 8985. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3439756

Timothy S. Thomas (Contact Author)

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) ( email )

2033 K Street, NW
Washington, DC 20006
United States
+1 202-862-5600 (Phone)
+1 202-467-4439 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.ifpri.org/

Liangzhi You

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) ( email )

1201 Eye St, NW,
Washington, DC 20005
United States

Ulrike Wood-Sichra

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) ( email )

1201 Eye St, NW,
Washington, DC 20005
United States

Yating Ru

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

1201 Eye St, NW,
Washington, DC 20005
United States

Brian Blankespoor

World Bank - Development Research Group (DECRG) ( email )

1818 H Street, NW
Washington, DC 20433
United States

HOME PAGE: http://https://sites.google.com/site/decrgbrianblankespoor/

Erwin Marinus Franciscus Kalvelagen

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

1201 Eye St, NW,
Washington, DC 20005
United States

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