Predictable End-of-Month Treasury Returns
41 Pages Posted: 22 Aug 2019 Last revised: 3 Dec 2019
Date Written: November 22, 2019
We document a distinct pattern in the timing of excess returns on coupon Treasury securities. Average returns are positive and highly significant in the last few days of the month, and are not significantly different from zero at other times. A long Treasury position for just the last few days of each month gives a high annualized Sharpe ratio of around 1. We attribute this pattern to temporary spikes in investor demand for specific securities due to window dressing and portfolio rebalancing. We find evidence in quantities that aggregate insurer transactions contribute to the end-of-month price pattern. In particular life insurers are large net buyers of Treasury securities on benchmark index rebalancing dates.
Keywords: Treasury yields, anomalies, market efficiency, excess returns, month-end, portfolio rebalancing
JEL Classification: G12, G14
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation