Measuring the Rise of Economic Nationalism

57 Pages Posted: 24 Aug 2019

See all articles by Monica de Bolle

Monica de Bolle

Peter G. Peterson Institute for International Economics

Jeromin Zettelmeyer

Peter G. Peterson Institute for International Economics; CEPR

Date Written: August 23, 2019

Abstract

Since the mid-2000s, the platforms of major political parties in both advanced and emerging-market economies have increasingly emphasized policies that stress national sovereignty, reject multilateralism, and seek to advance national interests through measures that come at the expense of foreign interests. This paper documents this shift by evaluating the policy platforms of the largest political parties (about 55 in total) in the Group of Twenty (G-20) countries with regard to trade policy, foreign direct investment (FDI), immigration, and multilateral organizations. Preference shifts with respect to industrial policy, competition policy, and macroeconomic populism are also examined. In advanced economies, the biggest shifts were toward restrictions on immigration and trade and toward macroeconomic populism. In emerging-market economies, the largest preference shifts were toward industrial policies favoring specific sectors, macroeconomic populism, and industrial concentration. Trade protectionism and skepticism toward multilateral organizations and agreements have increased in both advanced and emerging-market economies. As of 2018, economic policy preferences in emerging-market economies were more nationalist and less liberal than in advanced countries, but the gap has narrowed. Right-wing parties tend to be more nationalist than left-wing parties in the areas of immigration restrictions, FDI restrictions, and antimultilateralism, but there is no significant difference with respect to trade protectionism.

Keywords: nationalism, populism, capitalism, trade policy, industrial policy, protectionism

JEL Classification: F5, F1, F2

Suggested Citation

de Bolle, Monica and Zettelmeyer, Jeromin, Measuring the Rise of Economic Nationalism (August 23, 2019). Peterson Institute for International Economics Working Paper No. 19-15. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3441747 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3441747

Monica De Bolle (Contact Author)

Peter G. Peterson Institute for International Economics

1750 Massachusetts Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20036
United States

Jeromin Zettelmeyer

Peter G. Peterson Institute for International Economics ( email )

1750 Massachusetts Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20036
United States

CEPR ( email )

London
United Kingdom

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