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Fluctuations in Influenza Epidemics and Suicide Mortality: A Time-Series Regression of 13-Year Mortality Data

21 Pages Posted: 27 Aug 2019

See all articles by Sun Jae Jung

Sun Jae Jung

Yonsei University - Department of Preventive Medicine; Harvard University - Department of Epidemiology

Sung-Shil Lim

Yonsei University - Institute for Occupational Health

Jin-Ha Yoon

Yonsei University - Department of Preventive Medicine; Yonsei University - Institute for Occupational Health

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Abstract

Background: There is insufficient evidence to conclude regarding the association between influenza infection and neuropsychiatric symptoms including suicidality.

Aims: We explored the association between influenza infection and suicide rates in a large population using a time-series regression of 13-year mortality data.

Method: Weekly suicides and influenza were analyzed using time series regression. Regression coefficient for suicide based on percentage change of influenza was calculated using a quasi-Poisson regression. Non-linear distributed lag models with quadratic function up to 24 weeks were constructed.

Results: The association between influenza and suicide increased significantly up to 8 weeks post-influenza diagnosis. A significant positive association between influenza symptoms and suicide was observed from 2009, when a novel A(H1N1)pdm09 virus provoked a worldwide pandemic. No meaningful association between these factors was observed before 2009.

Conclusion: There was a significant positive relationship between influenza infection and suicide after 2009, when a novel A(H1N1)pdm09 virus provoked a worldwide pandemic.

Funding Statement: This study was supported by the Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) and funded by the Ministry of Science and ICT (NRF-2018R1C1B5083722) (to SJJ).

Declaration of Interests: The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

Ethical Approval Statement: The data used in this study lacks personal information. The Institutional Review Board (IRB) of the Yonsei University Health System approved the current study design (IRB number: Y-2017-0100).

Keywords: Influenza, Lag effects, Suicide, Time-series analysis

Suggested Citation

Jung, Sun Jae and Lim, Sung-Shil and Yoon, Jin-Ha, Fluctuations in Influenza Epidemics and Suicide Mortality: A Time-Series Regression of 13-Year Mortality Data (August 23, 2019). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3441827 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3441827

Sun Jae Jung

Yonsei University - Department of Preventive Medicine ( email )

Korea, Republic of (South Korea)

Harvard University - Department of Epidemiology ( email )

655 Huntington Ave.
Boston, MA 02115
United States

Sung-Shil Lim

Yonsei University - Institute for Occupational Health

Seoul
Korea, Republic of (South Korea)

Jin-Ha Yoon (Contact Author)

Yonsei University - Department of Preventive Medicine ( email )

Korea, Republic of (South Korea)

Yonsei University - Institute for Occupational Health ( email )

Seoul
Korea, Republic of (South Korea)

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