Fluctuations in Influenza Epidemics and Suicide Mortality: A Time-Series Regression of 13-Year Mortality Data
21 Pages Posted: 27 Aug 2019More...
Background: There is insufficient evidence to conclude regarding the association between influenza infection and neuropsychiatric symptoms including suicidality.
Aims: We explored the association between influenza infection and suicide rates in a large population using a time-series regression of 13-year mortality data.
Method: Weekly suicides and influenza were analyzed using time series regression. Regression coefficient for suicide based on percentage change of influenza was calculated using a quasi-Poisson regression. Non-linear distributed lag models with quadratic function up to 24 weeks were constructed.
Results: The association between influenza and suicide increased significantly up to 8 weeks post-influenza diagnosis. A significant positive association between influenza symptoms and suicide was observed from 2009, when a novel A(H1N1)pdm09 virus provoked a worldwide pandemic. No meaningful association between these factors was observed before 2009.
Conclusion: There was a significant positive relationship between influenza infection and suicide after 2009, when a novel A(H1N1)pdm09 virus provoked a worldwide pandemic.
Funding Statement: This study was supported by the Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) and funded by the Ministry of Science and ICT (NRF-2018R1C1B5083722) (to SJJ).
Declaration of Interests: The authors declare no conflicts of interest.
Ethical Approval Statement: The data used in this study lacks personal information. The Institutional Review Board (IRB) of the Yonsei University Health System approved the current study design (IRB number: Y-2017-0100).
Keywords: Influenza, Lag effects, Suicide, Time-series analysis
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