Regional Growth Spillovers in Sub-Saharan Africa

29 Pages Posted: 27 Aug 2019

See all articles by Francisco Arizala

Francisco Arizala

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Matthieu Bellon

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Margaux MacDonald

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Date Written: July 2019

Abstract

This paper documents the steady increase in intraregional trade in sub-Saharan Africa since 1980, links this rise to important growth spillovers in the region, and identifies the main source countries and those most vulnerable to the economic conditions of others. Estimates show that in the short run, positive idiosyncratic shocks to regional trading partners' growth significantly increase growth in the average sub-Saharan African country, while in the long-run the annual impact of growth in regional trading partner's is smaller in magnitude. Policy implications including the need to support further continent-wide integration and the associated growth spillovers are discussed. Actions policymakers in sub-Saharan Africa can take to capture the benefits of these spillovers, while limiting exposure to the associated risks, are also proposed.

Keywords: Globalization, Bilateral trade, Patterns of trade, International trade agreements, External shocks, Growth, Regional Integration, Spillovers, Africa., intra-regional, sub-Saharan Africa, sub-Saharan, sub-Saharan African country, endogeneity

JEL Classification: F14, F15, O11, O17, O55, O47, E01, F1, F6, E63

Suggested Citation

Arizala, Francisco and Bellon, Matthieu and MacDonald, Margaux, Regional Growth Spillovers in Sub-Saharan Africa (July 2019). IMF Working Paper No. 19/160, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3442874

Francisco Arizala (Contact Author)

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

Matthieu Bellon

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

Margaux MacDonald

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

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